Thursday, July 19, 2007

I've got a sinking feeling...

The New York Times
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July 15, 2007

The Richest of the Rich, Proud of a New Gilded Age

The tributes to Sanford I. Weill line the walls of the carpeted hallway that leads to his skyscraper office, with its panoramic view of Central Park. A dozen framed magazine covers, their colors as vivid as an Andy Warhol painting, are the most arresting. Each heralds Mr. Weill’s genius in assembling Citigroup into the most powerful financial institution since the House of Morgan a century ago.

His achievement required political clout, and that, too, is on display. Soon after he formed Citigroup, Congress repealed a Depression-era law that prohibited goliaths like the one Mr. Weill had just put together anyway, combining commercial and investment banking, insurance and stock brokerage operations. A trophy from the victory — a pen that President Bill Clinton used to sign the repeal — hangs, framed, near the magazine covers.

These days, Mr. Weill and many of the nation’s very wealthy chief executives, entrepreneurs and financiers echo an earlier era — the Gilded Age before World War I — when powerful enterprises, dominated by men who grew immensely rich, ushered in the industrialization of the United States. The new titans often see themselves as pillars of a similarly prosperous and expansive age, one in which their successes and their philanthropy have made government less important than it once was.

“People can look at the last 25 years and say this is an incredibly unique period of time,” Mr. Weill said. “We didn’t rely on somebody else to build what we built, and we shouldn’t rely on somebody else to provide all the services our society needs.”

Those earlier barons disappeared by the 1920s and, constrained by the Depression and by the greater government oversight and high income tax rates that followed, no one really took their place. Then, starting in the late 1970s, as the constraints receded, new tycoons gradually emerged, and now their concentrated wealth has made the early years of the 21st century truly another Gilded Age.

Only twice before over the last century has 5 percent of the national income gone to families in the upper one-one-hundredth of a percent of the income distribution — currently, the almost 15,000 families with incomes of $9.5 million or more a year, according to an analysis of tax returns by the economists Emmanuel Saez at the University of California, Berkeley and Thomas Piketty at the Paris School of Economics.

Such concentration at the very top occurred in 1915 and 1916, as the Gilded Age was ending, and again briefly in the late 1920s, before the stock market crash. Now it is back, and Mr. Weill is prominent among the new titans. His net worth exceeds $1 billion, not counting the $500 million he says he has already given away, in the open-handed style of Andrew Carnegie and the other great philanthropists of the earlier age.

At 74, just over a year into retirement as Citigroup chairman, Mr. Weill sees in Carnegie’s life aspects of his own. Andrew Carnegie, an impoverished Scottish immigrant, built a steel empire in Pittsburgh, taking risks that others shunned, just as the demand for steel was skyrocketing. He then gave away his fortune, reasoning that he was lucky to have been in the right spot at the right moment and he owed the community for his good luck — not in higher wages for his workers, but in philanthropic distribution of his wealth.

Mr. Weill’s beginnings were similarly inauspicious. A son of immigrants from Poland, raised in Brooklyn, a so-so college student, he landed on Wall Street in a low-level job in the 1950s. Harnessing entrepreneurial energy, deftness as a deal maker and an appetite for risk, with a rising stock market pulling him along, he built a financial empire that, in his view, successfully broke through the stultifying constraints that flowed from the New Deal. They were constraints not just on what business could or could not do, but on every high earner’s take-home pay.

“I once thought how lucky the Carnegies and the Rockefellers were because they made their money before there was an income tax,” Mr. Weill said, never believing in his younger days that deregulation and tax cuts, starting in the late 1970s, would bring back many of the easier conditions of the Gilded Age. “I felt that everything of any great consequence was really all made in the past,” he said. “That turned out not to be true and it is not true today.”

The Question of Talent

Other very wealthy men in the new Gilded Age talk of themselves as having a flair for business not unlike Derek Jeter’s “unique talent” for baseball, as Leo J. Hindery Jr. put it. “I think there are people, including myself at certain times in my career,” Mr. Hindery said, “who because of their uniqueness warrant whatever the market will bear.”

He counts himself as a talented entrepreneur, having assembled from scratch a cable television sports network, the YES Network, that he sold in 1999 for $200 million. “Jeter makes an unbelievable amount of money,” said Mr. Hindery, who now manages a private equity fund, “but you look at him and you say, ‘Wow, I cannot find another ballplayer with that same set of skills.’ ”

A handful of critics among the new elite, or close to it, are scornful of such self-appraisal. “I don’t see a relationship between the extremes of income now and the performance of the economy,” Paul A. Volcker, a former Federal Reserve Board chairman, said in an interview, challenging the contentions of the very rich that they are, more than others, the driving force of a robust economy.

The great fortunes today are largely a result of the long bull market in stocks, Mr. Volcker said. Without rising stock prices, stock options would not have become a major source of riches for financiers and chief executives. Stock prices rise for a lot of reasons, Mr. Volcker said, including ones that have nothing to do with the actions of these people.

“The market did not go up because businessmen got so much smarter,” he said, adding that the 1950s and 1960s, which the new tycoons denigrate as bureaucratic and uninspiring, “were very good economic times and no one was making what they are making now.”

James D. Sinegal, chief executive of Costco, the discount retailer, echoes that sentiment. “Obscene salaries send the wrong message through a company,” he said. “The message is that all brilliance emanates from the top; that the worker on the floor of the store or the factory is insignificant.”

A legendary chief executive from an earlier era is similarly critical. He is Robert L. Crandall, 71, who as president and then chairman and chief executive, led American Airlines through the early years of deregulation and pioneered the development of the hub-and-spoke system for managing airline routes. He retired in 1997, never having made more than $5 million a year, in the days before upper-end incomes really took off.

He is speaking out now, he said, because he no longer has to worry that his “radical views” might damage the reputation of American or that of the companies he served until recently as a director. The nation’s corporate chiefs would be living far less affluent lives, Mr. Crandall said, if fate had put them in, say, Uzbekistan instead of the United States, “where they are the beneficiaries of a market system that rewards a few people in extraordinary ways and leaves others behind.”

“The way our society equalizes incomes,” he argued, “is through much higher taxes than we have today. There is no other way.”

The New Tycoons

The new Gilded Age has created only one fortune as large as those of the Rockefellers, the Carnegies and the Vanderbilts — that of Bill Gates, according to various compilations. His net worth, measured as a share of the economy’s output, ranks him fifth among the 30 all-time wealthiest American families, just ahead of Carnegie. Only one other living billionaire makes the cut: Warren E. Buffett, in 16th place.

Individual fortunes nearly a century ago were so large that just 30 tycoons — Rockefeller was by far the wealthiest — had accumulated net worth equal to 5 percent of the national income. Their wealth flowed mainly from the empires they built in manufacturing, railroads, oil, coal, urban transit and mass retailing as the United States grew into the world’s largest industrial economy.

Today the fortunes of the very wealthiest are spread more widely. In addition to stock and stock options, low-interest credit has brought wealth to more families — by, for example, facilitating the sale of individual businesses for much greater sums than in the past. The fortunes amassed in hedge funds and in private equity often stem from deals involving huge amounts of easy credit and vast pools of capital available for investment.

The high-tech boom and the Internet unfolded against this backdrop. The rising stock market multiplied the wealth of Bill Gates as his software became the industry standard. It did the same for numerous others who financed start-ups on a shoestring and then went public at enormous gain.

Over a longer period, the market lifted the value of Mr. Buffett’s judicious investments and timely acquisitions, and he emerged as the extraordinarily wealthy Sage of Omaha, in effect, a baron of the new Gilded Age whose views are strikingly similar to those of Carnegie and Mr. Weill.

Like them, Mr. Buffett, 78, sees himself as lucky, having had the good fortune, as he put it, to have been born in America, white and male, and “wired for asset allocation” just when all four really paid off. He dwelt on his good fortune in a recent appearance at a fund-raiser for Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is vying for Mr. Buffett’s support of her presidential candidacy.

“This is a significantly richer country than 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago,” he declared, backing his assertion with a favorite statistic. The national income, divided by the population, is a very abundant $45,000 per capita, he said, a number that reflects an affluent nation but also obscures the lopsided income distribution intertwined with the prosperity.

“Society should place an initial emphasis on abundance,” Mr. Buffett argued, but “then should continuously strive” to redistribute the abundance more equitably.

No income tax existed in Carnegie’s day to do this, and neither Mr. Buffett nor Mr. Weill push for sharply higher income tax rates now, although Mr. Buffett criticizes the present tax code as unfairly skewed in his favor. Like Carnegie, philanthropy is their preference. “I want to give away my money rather than have somebody take it away,” Mr. Weill said.

Mr. Buffett is already well down that path. Most of his wealth is in the stock of his company, Berkshire Hathaway, and he is transferring the majority of that stock to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation so the Gateses can “materially expand” their giving.

“In my will,” he has written, echoing Carnegie’s last wishes, “I’ve stipulated that the proceeds from all Berkshire shares I still own at death are to be used for philanthropic purposes.”

Revisionist History

The new tycoons describe a history that gives them a heroic role. The American economy, they acknowledge, did grow more rapidly on average in the decades immediately after World War II than it is growing today. Incomes rose faster than inflation for most Americans and the spread between rich and poor was much less. But the United States was far and away the dominant economy, and government played a strong supporting role. In such a world, the new tycoons argue, business leaders needed only to be good managers.

Then, with globalization, with America competing once again for first place as strenuously as it had in the first Gilded Age, the need grew for a different type of business leader — one more entrepreneurial, more daring, more willing to take risks, more like the rough and tumble tycoons of the first Gilded Age. Lew Frankfort, chairman and chief executive of Coach, the manufacturer and retailer of trendy upscale handbags, who was among the nation’s highest paid chief executives last year, recaps the argument.

“The professional class that developed in business in the ’50s and ’60s,” he said, “was able as America grew at very steady rates to become industry leaders and move their organizations forward in most categories: steel, autos, housing, roads.”

That changed with the arrival of “the technological age,” in Mr. Frankfort’s view. Innovation became a requirement, in addition to good management skills — and innovation has played a role in Coach’s marketing success. “To be successful,” Mr. Frankfort said, “you now needed vision, lateral thinking, courage and an ability to see things, not the way they were but how they might be.”

Mr. Weill’s vision was to create a financial institution in the style of those that flourished in the last Gilded Age. Although insurance is gone, Citigroup still houses commercial and investment banking and stock brokerage.

The Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 outlawed the mix, blaming conflicts of interest inherent in such a combination for helping to bring on the 1929 crash and the Depression. The pen displayed in Mr. Weill’s hallway is one of those Mr. Clinton used to revoke Glass-Steagall in 1999. He did so partly to accommodate the newly formed Citigroup, whose heft was necessary, Mr. Weill said, if the United States was to be a powerhouse in global financial markets.

“The whole world is moving to the American model of free enterprise and capital markets,” Mr. Weill said, arguing that Wall Street cannot be a big player in China or India without giants like Citigroup. “Not having American financial institutions that really are at the fulcrum of how these countries are converting to a free-enterprise system,” he said, “would really be a shame.”

Such talk alarms Arthur Levitt Jr., a former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, who started on Wall Street years ago as a partner with Mr. Weill in a stock brokerage firm. Mr. Levitt has publicly lamented the end of Glass-Steagall, but Mr. Weill argues that its repeal “created the opportunities to keep people still moving forward.”

Mr. Levitt is skeptical. “I view a gilded age as an age in which warning flags are flying and are seen by very few people,” he said, referring to the potential for a Wall Street firm to fail or markets to crash in a world of too much deregulation. “I think this is a time of great prosperity and a time of great danger.”

It’s Not the Money, or Is It?

Not that money is the only goal. Mr. Hindery, the cable television entrepreneur, said he would have worked just as hard for a much smaller payoff, and others among the very wealthy agreed. “I worked because I loved what I was doing,” Mr. Weill said, insisting that not until he retired did “I have a chance to sit back and count up what was on the table.” And Kenneth C. Griffin, who received more than $1 billion last year as chairman of a hedge fund, the Citadel Investment Group, declared: “The money is a byproduct of a passionate endeavor.”

Mr. Griffin, 38, argued that those who focus on the money — and there is always a get-rich crowd — “soon discover that wealth is not a particularly satisfying outcome.” His own team at Citadel, he said, “loves the problems they work on and the challenges inherent to their business.”

Mr. Griffin maintained that he has created wealth not just for himself but for many others. “We have helped to create real social value in the U.S. economy,” he said. “We have invested money in countless companies over the years and they have helped countless people.”

The new tycoons oppose raising taxes on their fortunes. Unlike Mr. Crandall, neither Mr. Weill nor Mr. Griffin nor most of the dozen others who were interviewed favor tax rates higher than they are today, although a few would go along with a return to the levels of the Clinton administration. The marginal tax on income then was 39.6 percent, and on capital gains, 20 percent. That was still far below the 70 percent and 39 percent in the late 1970s. Those top rates, in the Bush years, are now 35 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

“The income distribution has to stand,” Mr. Griffin said, adding that by trying to alter it with a more progressive income tax, “you end up in problematic circumstances. In the current world, there will be people who will move from one tax area to another. I am proud to be an American. But if the tax became too high, as a matter of principle I would not be working this hard.”

Creating Wealth

Some chief executives of publicly traded companies acknowledge that their fortunes are indeed large — but that it reflects only a small share of the corporate value created on their watch.

Mr. Frankfort, the 61-year-old Coach chief, took home $44.4 million last year. His net worth is in the high nine figures. Yet his pay and net worth, he notes, are small compared with the gain to shareholders since Coach went public six years ago, with Mr. Frankfort at the helm. The market capitalization, the value of all the shares, is nearly $18 billion, up from an initial $700 million.

“I don’t think it is unreasonable,” he said, “for the C.E.O. of a company to realize 3 to 5 percent of the wealth accumulation that shareholders realize.”

That strikes Robert C. Pozen as a reasonable standard. He made a name for himself — and a fortune — rejuvenating mutual funds, starting with Fidelity. In one case, he said, the fund he was running made a profit of $1 billion; his pay that year was $15 million.

“In every organization there are a relatively small number of really critical people,” Mr. Pozen said. “You have to start with that premise, and I made a big difference.”

Mr. Weill makes a similar point. Escorting a visitor down his hall of tributes, he lingers at framed charts with multicolored lines tracking Citigroup’s stock price. Two of the lines compare the price in the five years of Mr. Weill’s active management with that of Mr. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway during the same period. Citigroup went up at six times the pace of Berkshire.

“I think that the results our company had, which is where the great majority of my wealth came from, justified what I got,” Mr. Weill said.

New Technologies

Others among the very rich argue that their wealth helps them develop new technologies that benefit society. Steve Perlman, a Silicon Valley innovator, uses his fortune from breakthrough inventions to help finance his next attempt at a new technology so far out, he says, that even venture capitalists approach with caution. He and his partners, co-founders of WebTV Networks, which developed a way to surf the Web using a television set, sold that still profitable system to Microsoft in 1997 for $503 million.

Mr. Perlman’s share went into the next venture, he says, and the next. One of his goals with his latest enterprise, a private company called Rearden L.L.C., is to develop over several years a technology that will make film animation seem like real-life movies. “There was no one who would invest,” Mr. Perlman said. So he used his own money.

In an earlier era, big corporations and government were the major sources of money for cutting-edge research with an uncertain outcome. Bell Labs in New Jersey was one of those research centers, and Mr. Perlman, now a 46-year-old computer engineer with 71 patents to his name, said that, in an earlier era, he could easily have gone to Bell as a salaried inventor.

In the 1950s, for example, he might have been on the team that built the first transistor, a famous Bell Labs breakthrough. Instead, after graduating from Columbia University, he went to Apple in Silicon Valley, then to Microsoft and finally out on his own.

“I would have been happy as a clam to participate in the development of the transistor,” Mr. Perlman said. “The path I took was the path that was necessary to do what I was doing.”

Carnegie’s Philanthropy

In contrast to many of his peers in corporate America, Mr. Sinegal, 70, the Costco chief executive, argues that the nation’s business leaders would exercise their “unique skills” just as vigorously for “$10 million instead of $200 million, if that were the standard.”

As a co-founder of Costco, which now has 132,000 employees, Mr. Sinegal still holds $150 million in company stock. He is certainly wealthy. But he distinguishes between a founder’s wealth and the current practice of paying a chief executive’s salary in stock options that balloon into enormous amounts. His own salary as chief executive was $349,000 last year, incredibly modest by current standards.

“I think that most of the people running companies today are motivated and pay is a small portion of the motivation,” Mr. Sinegal said. So why so much pressure for ever higher pay?

“Because everyone else is getting it,” he said. “It is as simple as that. If somehow a proclamation were made that C.E.O.’s could only make a maximum of $300,000 a year, you would not have any shortage of very qualified men and women seeking the jobs.”

Looking back, none of the nation’s legendary tycoons was more aware of his good luck than Andrew Carnegie.

“Carnegie made it abundantly clear that the centerpiece of his gospel of wealth philosophy was that individuals do not create wealth by themselves,” said David Nasaw, a historian at City University of New York and the author of “Andrew Carnegie” (Penguin Press). “The creator of wealth in his view was the community, and individuals like himself were trustees of that wealth.”

Repaying the community did not mean for Carnegie raising the wages of his steelworkers. Quite the contrary, he sometimes cut wages and, in doing so, presided over violent antiunion actions.

Carnegie did not concern himself with income inequality. His whole focus was philanthropy. He favored a confiscatory estate tax for those who failed to arrange to return, before their deaths, the fortunes the community had made possible. And today dozens of libraries, cultural centers, museums and foundations bear Carnegie’s name.

“Confiscatory” does not appear in Mr. Weill’s public comments on the estate tax, or in those of Mr. Gates. They note that the estate tax, now being phased out at the urging of President Bush, will return in full in 2010, unless Congress acts otherwise.

They publicly favor retaining an estate tax but focus their attention on philanthropy.

Mr. Weill ticks off a list of gifts that he and his wife, Joan, have made. Some bear their names, and will for years to come. With each bequest, one or the other joins the board. Appropriately, Carnegie Hall has been a big beneficiary, and Mr. Weill as chairman was honored at a huge fund-raising party that Carnegie Hall gave on his 70th birthday.

The Weills — matching what everyone else pledged — gave $30 million to enhance the concert hall that Andrew Carnegie built in 1890 in pursuit of returning his fortune to the community, establishing a standard that today’s tycoons embrace.

“We have that in common,” Mr. Weill said.

Amanda Cox contributed reporting.

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Bear Stearns Says Battered Hedge Funds Are Worth Little

July 18, 2007

Bear Stearns told clients in its two battered hedge funds late yesterday that their investments, worth an estimated $1.5 billion at the end of 2006, are almost entirely gone. In phone calls to anxious investors, Bear Stearns brokers reported yesterday that May and June had been devastating months for the portfolios.

The more conservative fund, the High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund, was down 91 percent by the end of June, investors were told. The High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, which used extensive borrowings and assumed more risk, has no investor capital left, the firm said.

“In light of these returns, we will seek an orderly wind-down of the funds over time,” a letter to Bear Stearns clients said.

Overseen by Bear Stearns Asset Management, the hedge funds had been stellar performers until this spring when the mortgage securities market began to falter. Delinquencies on loans made to risky borrowers, known as subprime mortgages, started climbing in February; since then the value of the securities have spiraled downward.

Bear Stearns executives declined to comment last night.

The drama surrounding the two funds began in May when investors in the more leveraged hedge fund were told losses through the end of April totaled 23 percent, not 10 percent as they had been told earlier. As securities markets declined, even the more conservative fund registered losses starting in March.

Investors tried to get out of the funds, but in May, Bear Stearns halted redemptions. Shortly after that, several banks and brokerage firms that had provided loans began demanding more cash as collateral. On June 26, Bear Stearns said it would offer a $1.6 billion loan to shore up the more conservative fund and unwind its positions.

In yesterday’s letter to clients, Bear Stearns said that some $1.4 billion of the loan remains untapped.

While risky mortgages are thought to have been central to the funds’ misfortunes, Bear’s letter said that “unprecedented declines in the valuations of a number of highly rated (AA and AAA) securities” contributed to June’s woeful performance.

The more conservative of the two Bear Stearns funds was the older; established three years ago, it generated monthly gains of roughly 1 percent to 1.5 percent until March. Bear Stearns started the more leveraged fund last summer, just as the mania for mortgage securities was topping out. At their peak, the funds were valued at $16 billion, including the leverage that they used.

The announcement that the funds are now almost worthless came as a surprise to many on Wall Street. “How did you go from reporting very high returns to suddenly now saying the collateral is worth nothing?” asked Janet Tavakoli, president of Tavakoli Structured Finance, a research firm in Chicago.

The Bear Stearns funds, like so many others, bought collateralized debt obligations, investment pools consisting of hundred of loans and other financial instruments. Wall Street divides the pools up in slices based on their credit quality and sells them to investors.

Mark H. Adelson, head of structured finance research at Nomura Securities, said that the Bear Stearns funds steep decline had broad implications for investors in these bonds. “It’s going to provide an additional item that argues for lower valuations on these positions,” he said.

Ms. Tavakoli said other hedge funds would face a tougher time justifying to both investors and regulators the value they have assigned to mortgage-backed securities they hold. “Depending on how aggressive the S.E.C. wants to be, this could get ugly,” she said.

In after-market trading, Bear Stearns shares fell 3.6 percent, to $134.90. The stock is down about 14 percent for the year.

Even before Bear Stearns made its disturbing disclosures, the ABX index, which tracks the price of insuring losses in subprime bonds, hit fresh lows. The part of the index that tracks A-rated segments of mortgage securities issued in late 2006 and early 2007 fell to 68.5 cents on the dollar, down from 72.36 cents Friday.

“There are a bunch of unanswered questions here,” said Joshua Rosner, a managing director at Graham & Fisher, an investment firm. “For me, one of the big unanswered questions is, do the prime brokers and others who have extended lines of credit to the hedge funds really have a good handle” on how those borrowings have been invested.

Julie Creswell and Vikas Bajaj contributed reporting.

Family Values Party...David Vitter

The Nation -- In the fall of 1998, David Vitter felt compelled to weigh in on the national debate over the possible impeachment of President Bill Clinton for lying about sex. Vitter was not yet a member of Congress; he was a Republican state representative. And in an October 29, 1998, opinion piece for the New Orleans Times-Picayune, Vitter took issue with a previous article, written by two law professors who had argued that impeachment "is a process of removing a president from office who can no longer effectively govern; it is not about punishment." Given that Clinton was still a capable chief executive, they had maintained, impeachment was not in order.

In considering impeachment, Vitter asserted, Congress had to judge Clinton on moral terms. Decrying the law professors' failure to see this, Vitter observed, "Is that the level of moral relatively [sic] and vacuousness we have come to?" If no "meaningful action" were to be taken against Clinton, Vitter wrote, "his leadership will only further drain any sense of values left to our political culture."

Strong words. Now that Vitter, who entered the House of Representatives in 1999 after winning a special election to fill the seat of Representative Bob Livingston (who resigned after being caught in an adultery scandal) and who was elected senator in 2004, has admitted he placed a phone call to the so-called DC Madam, his constituents can only wonder if he will hold himself to the same standards he sought to apply to Bill Clinton.

Vitter, who is married with four children, has been a vigorous advocate of family values, championing abstinence-only programs and calling for a ban on gay marriage. In a statement his office rushed out on Monday night--before he could be outed by Hustler magazine--Vitter said he had committed a "serious sin" and claimed that "several years ago, I asked for and received forgiveness from God and my wife in confession and marriage counseling." I seem to recall that Bill Clinton took a similar stance after he acknowledged his affair with Monica Lewinsky. That, though, did not prevent Vitter from calling for Clinton's forcible removal from office.

Perhaps Vitter ought to revisit the issue of whether the absence of moral fitness is a firing offense for a public official.

$10 Cigar Tax!

July 18, 2007

Cigarmakers and their customers are in a panic over a proposal to raise the federal tax on cigars -- now a nickel -- to as much as $10.

Congress -- meeting in smoke-free rooms -- is looking for an extra $35 billion to $50 billion for the state children's health insurance program and hopes to raise most of it through excise taxes on products like tobacco.

Cigarettes, which accounted for more than 95 percent of tobacco tax collections last year, are the main focus of the bill -- federal taxes on a pack would jump from 39 cents to $1.

But cigars would not escape.

There is currently 4.8 cents-per-cigar tax cap but under the proposed bill, taxes on "large cigars," a category that includes all but the tiny cigars sold in packs of 20 like cigarettes, would rise to 53 percent.

A version of the bill being considered by the Senate Finance Committee sets the maximum tax per cigar at $10.

"I'm not sure in the history of man, since our forefathers founded the country in 1776, that there's ever been a tax increase of 20,000 percent," said Eric Newman, who runs a Tampa cigar shop, according to the St. Petersburg Times. "They had the Boston Tea Party for less than this."

Others were equally befogged.

"I thought there was a typo. I thought they meant 10 cents per cigar, not $10 per cigar, said Norm Sharp, president of the Cigar Association of America, the Times reported.

Of course, cigar sales are just the merest wisp of the cigarette market. In 2006, Americans bought nearly 400 billion cigarettes and only 5.3 billion cigars

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Housing troubles begin to snowball

Credit downgrades by Moody's and possible downgrades by Standard & Poor's are a sign of serious trouble in the debt world that will eventually impact markets and the economy.

By Bill Fleckenstein

This week I'd like to describe approximately where I feel we are in the housing-ATM unwinding process.

That's not to imply that I think I know exactly what may happen next, but new clues have emerged since I wrote about the unwind a few weeks ago. They come to us via Standard & Poor's and Moody's, which last week announced potential or actual credit downgrades.

For readers who might not follow the bouncing ball of structured credit closely, let me explain why this is such a big deal.

Rejecting the hunky-dory story

To recap a long process: The housing market topped out in 2005, although until about six months ago, people continued to speculate in housing and use it as an ATM.

Those of us who felt we understood the speculation that had occurred believed quite strongly that once housing peaked, there would be real trouble for the economy and, by extension, the asset classes impacted by a housing bust.

The problems have taken a long time to play out, largely because of what we've recently come to discover but probably could or should have known all along: that the building blocks of the housing ATM -- more accurately referred to as structured credit -- were created in such a way that these securities were rarely marked to market. Rather, they were allowed to be marked to a model, based on a variety of assumptions. Essentially, therefore, one's assets were impaired only when the ratings companies downgraded them. (See my June 25 and July 2 columns for review.)

Rot bloomed in winter

Fast-forward to last February and March, which saw the implosion of a couple of dozen subprime lenders. Wall Street reacted by proclaiming the problem "contained." Though I essentially laughed at that sanguine response, now I understand what it meant: Those in the know understood that nothing was going to be marked to market, so the subprime-loan-originator implosion didn't matter.

Next, we saw the blowup of Bear Stearns' (BSC, news, msgs) High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund. That happened, in part, because manager Ralph Cioffi had tried to hedge some of its weaker credits with an ABX index that did get marked to market. Thus the fund lost money and was hit with redemptions.

Vested interests R us

At the time, I said that redemptions were going to force price discovery into the market -- although, as Jim Grant so eloquently put it in a recent issue of Grant's Interest Rate Observer -- Bear Stearns had a totally different opinion: "Price discovery could wait until the return of blue skies and normal pulse rates. The first order of business was price suppression."

This price suppression was the outcome folks had hoped for. After all, according to a July 11 article in Bloomberg, Wall Street took in about $27 billion in revenue from underwriting and trading asset-backed securities last year alone. It's a mighty profitable business that they are protecting.

Drumbeats in the junk-debt jungle

That no doubt seemed threatened July 10, when Standard & Poor's announced it had placed 612 bonds issued between the fourth quarters of 2005 and 2006 -- totaling $12 billion -- on credit watch with negative implications. Also, S&P said it was going to review the collateralized debt obligations backed by those bonds.

More importantly, it announced a change in the methodology used to rate existing and new mortgage bonds. Late that day, Moody's took a step further, saying it would actually lower the credit ratings on 399 bonds, totaling $5.2 billion, and put 32 other issues under negative credit watch for possible downgrades. Thus, the ratings companies, which have been complicit in this gargantuan misallocation of capital, now appear to be feeling the heat to "do something."

The combination of folks wanting their money back and the gradual return of the time-honored practice of mark-to-market -- aided by belated sobriety from the ratings companies -- will bring some acceleration to the spreading real-estate pain that has thus far been slow to develop.

(Although, given the long list of large retailers that are stumbling -- including Target (TGT, news, msgs), Sears Holding (SHLD, news, msgs) and J.C. Penney (JCP, news, msgs), as well as restaurant chains -- it's quite clear that the consumer is now feeling some pain.)

Wall Street and the hedge-fund community have been able to ignore all this, thanks to the mark-to-theory fantasy. I believe that chapter has ended and a new one is beginning -- that being the quaint old notion of price discovery. As I said, I don't know exactly how this will play out, but I think the process is finally going to speed up.

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Senate GOP leaders block Webb dwell-time plan

By Rick Maze - Staff writer
Posted : Wednesday Jul 11, 2007 14:12:40 EDT

A Senate proposal to guarantee combat troops more time at home was derailed Wednesday by a procedural roadblock thrown by Republicans.

Fifty-six senators supported the plan offered by two military veterans — Sens. Jim Webb, D-Va., and Chuck Hagel, R-Neb. — that would promise service members returning from deployment as much time at home as they had spent in a combat zone, unless they volunteer to return early.

Under normal circumstances, 56 votes would have been enough for the measure to pass. But the Senate’s debate over Iraq policy during consideration of the $648 billion defense policy bill for 2008 is not normal, because Republican leaders have vowed to use procedural moves to stop Democrats from changing the Bush administration’s Iraq strategy.

With Republicans threatening endless debate, known in legislative terms as a filibuster, supporters of the Webb-Hagel amendment needed to muster 60 votes to stop the talking and bring the plan to a vote. They fell four votes short.

Webb said he was disappointed but won’t give up. “We are going to continue to focus on this,” he said.

The intent of the guaranteed time at home, known as “dwell time,” is “to protect our troops,” he said.

Hagel also vowed to try again with a modified amendment. “If we cannot get this right, I am not sure what we can do,” he said.

Opponents said the dwell-time plan would have Congress making decisions that are best left to the president and military commanders.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said the amendment would have created a “congressionally mandated fence around every service member.”

“This certainly is without precedent,” McCain said. “I think it would be bad congressional micromanagement” and would have “immediate, adverse effects” on Iraq operations.

“If you want to take care of the troops, let them win,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., the former chairman of the Senate Armed Services military personnel subcommittee.

Sen. Barbara Milkuski, D-Md., said she was disappointed in the Senate for blocking a vote on an amendment aimed at supporting troops and their families, especially one sponsored by two Vietnam combat veterans whose views on personnel issues traditionally would be given great weight because “they know the stresses of war.”

Work on the defense bill continues, with other Iraq-related amendments expected on setting a withdrawal date for U.S. combat troops and ordering a change in the missions assigned to those troops.

Republican leaders intend to use the same tactic of potentially unending debate, which will continue to force Democrats to try and muster 60 votes to stop them. Falling short on the less-controversial deployment issue is believed to be a sign that 60 votes will not be found for other Iraq amendments opposed by the Bush administration.

Bush to Congress...Get Bent

WASHINGTON, July 11 — President Bush has told his former White House counsel, Harriet E. Miers, not to even appear on Thursday before the House Judiciary Committee investigating the firings of United States attorneys, the committee chairman said today.

Susan Etheridge for The New York Times

Sara Taylor, President Bush's former political director, testifying in a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing today.

Representative John D. Conyers, the Michigan Democrat who heads the panel, said he was told in a letter dated Tuesday from Ms. Miers’s lawyer that she would not appear. Mr. Conyers said the lawyer was reacting to a letter from Fred F. Fielding, the current White House counsel, asserting that “Ms. Miers has absolute immunity from compelled Congressional testimony as to matters occurring while she was a senior adviser to the president.”

Mr. Conyers said he was “extremely disappointed” at the White House’s stance, and he hoped that Ms. Miers might appear despite Mr. Bush’s assertion of executive privilege to keep her away from the hearing. It had been expected that Ms. Miers would appear and would decline to answer certain questions.

The White House’s defiance of a subpoena from Mr. Conyers’s panel intensified a showdown between the executive and legislative branches and could portend a court battle, unless a political compromise can be reached.

The disclosure that the White House wants to keep Ms. Miers from appearing came hours after the former White House political director declined to answer senators’ questions about the firings of the United States attorneys last year and expressed personal remorse about one dismissal.

The former political director, Sara M. Taylor, honored President Bush’s invocation of executive privilege, as she had been expected to do, in a hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

“Who decided which U.S. attorneys to fire, and why were they fired?” Senator Dianne Feinstein, Democrat of California, asked in an exchange with Ms. Taylor that was typical of the questioning.

When Ms. Taylor offered a somewhat rambling reply, saying she was doing her best to follow the president’s assertion of privilege and “determine what is a deliberation and what is a fact-based question,” Ms. Feinstein cut her off.

“You decline to answer,” the senator said.

“Yeah,” the witness replied.

United States attorneys serve at the pleasure of the president. But the dismissals of the eight federal prosecutors last year ignited a controversy because of accusations that at least some of them may have been let go because, in the eyes of some Bush administration loyalists, they were too aggressive in going after Republicans or not aggressive enough in pursuing Democrats.

Senator Patrick J. Leahy, the Vermont Democrat who heads the committee, said at the outset that the White House had declined to answer questions about the dismissals because it was “contemptuous of the Congress.”

Ms. Taylor, 32, expressed contrition when Ms. Feinstein brought up an e-mail message that Ms. Taylor sent in February to D. Kyle Sampson, the former chief of staff to Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales, in which Ms. Taylor said H. E. Cummins III was being removed as United States attorney in Arkansas because he was “lazy.”

“What led you to conclude that Mr. Cummins was lazy?” Ms. Feinstein asked.

“That was an unnecessary comment,” Ms. Taylor replied, “and I would like to take this opportunity to apologize to Mr. Cummins. It was unkind, and it was unnecessary.” She added that she had heard that Mr. Cummins was lazy. “That may not be fair,” she went on, apologizing again for any embarrassment she had caused.

The dismissal of Mr. Cummins has been of considerable interest to senators, since he was replaced by J. Timothy Griffin, a former aide to Karl Rove, President Bush’s top political adviser. Ms. Taylor described Mr. Griffin as a lawyer of impeccable credentials and integrity.

Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, the panel’s ranking Republican, pressed Ms. Taylor on whether, in fact, Mr. Cummins was forced out to make room for Mr. Griffin. The witness said she was not certain.

In any event, she said, the dismissal of Mr. Cummins was particularly unfortunate, she said, because he had been planning to leave his post anyhow. “Obviously, we’re sitting here today because this whole situation has been awkwardly handled,” she said.

Ms. Taylor said she had never discussed the firings with President Bush himself. “I know the president to be a good and decent man,” she said in her opening remarks. “I am privileged to have had the opportunity to serve him, and I admire his unflinching devotion to always do what he believes is right for the country.”

When Mr. Specter asked her if Mr. Rove or Ms. Miers had personally intervened in the replacement of Mr. Cummins, Ms. Taylor said, “I don’t specifically know. I don’t, I don’t know for sure if one or both or either did.”

Despite their occasional annoyance over questions that went unanswered, the senators seemed to sympathize with Ms. Taylor on a personal level. Senator Richard J. Durbin, Democrat of Illinois, said he thought that “Karl Rove should be sitting at this table, not Sara Taylor.”

Committee members were exasperated, but not surprised, as Ms. Taylor honored Mr. Bush’s invocation of executive privilege. She pledged in a written statement to be silent about “White House consideration, deliberations, or communications, whether internal or external, relating to the possible dismissal or appointment of United States attorneys.” Those parameters were set forth in a letter to Ms. Taylor’s lawyer, W. Neil Eggleston, from the White House counsel, Mr. Fielding.

Ms. Taylor acknowledged in the statement that differences may emerge about what falls under Mr. Fielding’s parameters and that “this may be frustrating to you and me.”

In her statement, Ms. Taylor portrays herself as caught in the middle of a Constitutional clash between Congressional committees seeking answers in the attorney firings and the president, who is accusing them of interfering with his right to private counsel.

In her written testimony, Ms. Taylor said she would not take it upon herself to disobey the president’s request during today’s hearing but said she would defer to the courts if it came to that in the future.

“While I may be unable to answer certain questions today,” Ms. Taylor’s opening statement read, “I will answer those questions if the courts rule that this committee’s need for the information outweighs the president’s assertion of executive privilege.”

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Increasing Rate of Foreclosures Upsets Atlanta

The New York Times

July 9, 2007

Increasing Rate of Foreclosures Upsets Atlanta

ATLANTA — Despite a vibrant local economy, Atlanta homeowners are falling behind on mortgage payments and losing their homes at one of the highest rates in the nation, offering a troubling glimpse of what experts fear may be in store for other parts of the country.

The real estate slump here and elsewhere is likely to worsen, given that most of the adjustable rate mortgages written in the last three years will be reset with higher interest rates, said Christopher F. Thornberg, an economist with Beacon Economics in Los Angeles. As a result, borrowers of an estimated $800 billion in loans will be forced in the next 12 months to 18 months to make bigger monthly payments, refinance or sell their homes.

A big reason the fallout is occurring faster here is a Georgia law that permits lenders to foreclose on properties more quickly than in other states. The problems include not just people losing their homes, but also sharp declines in property values, particularly in lower-income and working-class neighborhoods.

For example, a three-bedroom house near Turner Field, where the Atlanta Braves baseball team plays, fetched a high bid late last month of $134,000 at an auction by the bank that took possession of it. Almost three years ago, the new home was bought for $330,000.

While the surge in foreclosures in other big cities like Cleveland, New Orleans and Detroit can be attributed to local economic challenges, Atlanta more closely reflects the nation. Its unemployment rate, 4.9 percent in May, is low and close to the national average of 4.5 percent. And businesses here are adding jobs, albeit at a slower pace than they were last year.

Like others across the country, homeowners here took out aggressive mortgages in the last few years when interest rates were low and housing prices were soaring. Now many are falling behind — some have lost jobs or experienced other financial difficulties, but many others are not able to refinance because their homes are worth less than they paid for them and their credit is now too weak for them to qualify for another loan.

So far, the pain has been limited to those on the financial margins, but as more loans are reset to higher rates and home prices continue to slide, more homeowners will be unable to meet rising payments or to refinance. “This is a process that is starting low and will go high,” said Mr. Thornberg, the economist in Los Angeles.

Atlanta also serves as a microcosm for some broader national trends: wages have been stagnant for much of this decade, homeowners have taken on record amounts of debt, and mortgage fraud has been on the rise.

“We are a very affordable place,” said Mike Alexander, the chief of research at the Atlanta Regional Commission, an organization that serves local governments. “But our incomes are very low, and if anything went wrong, it would be very hard for people to maintain their homes.”

An estimated 2.7 percent of all housing units in the region were in foreclosure at the end of last year, up from 1.1 percent in 2000, according to an analysis by the commission. Nationally, less than 1 percent of all housing units were in foreclosure, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association and the Census Bureau.

Though Atlanta has added jobs in recent years, they pay less than the jobs the region lost after the technology boom of the late 1990s ended. The median household income was only 7.6 percent higher in 2005 than in 2000, according to the Census Bureau. That is about half the rate of inflation during that period, and it mirrors what has occurred nationally.

While wages have languished, average Atlanta families are shouldering more debt. As of March, residents had bigger credit card balances, mortgages and car loans relative to their income than average Americans, according to data compiled by Moody’s Economy.com. And the equity that Atlanta residents have in their homes — the value of their house minus what they owe — has dropped 14 percent since peaking in late 2005.

By comparison, in California — the state where mortgage lending was most aggressive, real estate prices climbed fastest and homeowners have the highest debt burdens — home equity values have dropped about 10 percent from their peak in 2005.

Georgia’s foreclosure laws have also accelerated a process that can drag on for months in legal proceedings in other states. Lenders can declare a borrower in default and reclaim a house in as little as 60 days.

“Because of the foreclosure laws, it may be that people go from delinquency into foreclosure much more quickly in Georgia,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com.

That still would not explain why so many people fall behind on house payments in the first place.

At the end of March, 6 percent of all mortgages in Georgia were more than 30 days past due, the fourth-highest rate in the nation, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mississippi, Louisiana and Michigan had more loans past due.

Rajeev Dhawan, an economics professor at Georgia State University, has started studying the characteristics of loans on homes that are in foreclosure. His preliminary analysis of data from April shows that nearly half were for adjustable rate mortgages and many were issued in the last two years.

“Everybody thought if the home prices kept going up, the lenders will keep refinancing you,” he said.

In recent years, industry groups and law enforcement agencies have also cited Atlanta for being home to some aggressive mortgage fraud schemes. It may have been an easier target because the prices of homes in the same neighborhood can vary greatly here, making it easier to inflate appraisals.

Auctions for a dozen homes conducted one day in late June across the Atlanta area — from gritty inner-city neighborhoods to the affluent suburb of Marietta — provide a window into how the real estate slump is playing out here.

The most prized property on offer that day was a stately four-bedroom brick home in Marietta that sits on a tree-covered lot measuring three-quarters of an acre. It fetched a high bid of $646,000, about $60,000 more than the last mortgage on the property. More than 200 people turned up at the auction, and the winning bidders were a young couple, Cameron and Jamie Clayton, who are expecting a second child this year.

“I wouldn’t say it is a steal,” said Mr. Clayton, who is an executive at The Weather Channel. “We paid the same price we would have paid on the market, maybe more.”

But about 25 miles south, an auction for the three-bedroom home near Turner Field produced a starkly different result. Corey Neureuther, a 29-year-old accountant, was the winning bidder. He said it was his first real estate investment and he was surprised that others did not bid the price up at the auction, which drew about 30 people. Having recently moved to Atlanta from New York, he said he became interested in buying property after learning about foreclosures in the area.

“I thought for sure it would sell for $200,000 plus,” he said. Mr. Neureuther said he thought that he could make money by renting out the house.

Stephanie Calhoun, the former owner of the home, could not be reached for comment. Property records show she took out two loans to finance 100 percent of the purchase price. She borrowed the money from Ownit Mortgage Solutions, a California company that sought bankruptcy protection in December after many of its customers defaulted on their loans. Investors who bought bonds backed by Ownit loans will bear the loss on her home.

Dean Williams, the president of Williams & Williams, the firm that conducted the auctions, said results of the sales in Atlanta and elsewhere in the country showed that real estate prices were inflated during the recent boom, especially in less affluent areas.

“When you find out what the market price really is, it can be a joke,” said Mr. Williams, whose family-owned firm is based in Tulsa, Okla.

Economists say auctions are generally the most efficient way to determine prices. But only about 1 percent of residential real estate sold in the country last year by dollar value was auctioned.

Most sellers still list homes and wait until they get an offer close to their asking price. At the end of March, 2.8 percent of all owner-occupied homes nationally were vacant and for sale, up from 1.8 percent at the start of 2005. That is the highest vacancy rate in the 51 years the Census Bureau has been tracking it.

But as more homes end up in the hands of banks and trustees for mortgage bonds — who are typically looking to minimize losses — auctions may play a bigger role.

Mark Rollins bought a house southwest of downtown Atlanta for $78,000 at one of the Williams & Williams auctions. The property sold for $255,000 in summer 2004. Mr. Rollins, who is a Realtor, said he planned to live in the house for a couple of years, fix it up and resell it for $150,000 when the market recovered.

Why did the house sell for so much more in 2004? Mr. Rollins has a simple theory: “The market was hot, the interest rates were low, and they were giving all kinds of deals to people.”

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Popcorn prices popping thanks to ethanol boom

Tue Jul 10, 2007 2:27PM EDT

By Christopher Doering

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A trip to the local Cineplex may become even pricier soon thanks to surging popcorn costs.

U.S. popcorn prices have risen more than 40 percent since 2006 as soaring demand for feed corn to fuel the ethanol boom has spilled over into the favorite snack of American movie-goers.

Companies that purchase popcorn each year, as opposed to larger crops such as corn and soybeans, are confined to choosing among a relatively small number of suppliers. This makes it important for popcorn companies to offer competitive prices and forge good relationships with farmers.

"I think (ethanol is) going to have a uniform effect on all geographical areas that produce popcorn," said Dennis Kunnemann, president of AK Acres Popcorn, which buys, processes and then sells popcorn to distributors, packagers and snack-food retailers.

"This year, we've paid the highest price ever that I've contracted for, 13 cents a pound," compared with 9 cents per lb last year, Kunnemann added.

The family-owned company in Imperial, Nebraska, has passed its increased cost on to customers by signing new contracts for between 18 and 20 cents a lb, up about 40 percent from 2006.

AK Acres also has helped in the ethanol boom by selling land next to its facility for the construction of an ethanol plant slated to begin later this year.

Americans consume 4 billion gallons of popcorn annually, totaling 13.5 gallons per person, according to the Popcorn Board, which promotes the industry. An estimated 70 percent of the snack food is consumed in homes, with the remaining 30 percent eaten at theaters, stadiums and schools.

Since most of the world's popcorn is grown in the United States, it seems fitting that American movie-goers and retail shoppers consume more of the snack than their counterparts in any other country.

U.S. ETHANOL OUTPUT ON TRACK TO DOUBLE

At American Pop Corn, which makes Jolly Time Pop Corn, the 90-year-old company has increased the price tag for bulk items 20 percent from a year ago, and smaller bags between 1 and 4 lbs were increased 10 percent in June. The increase has helped buffer a 63 percent jump in the price it now pays for seed.

Greg Hoffman, vice president of production at the company, said the industry is holding off price hikes on microwaveable bags "in anticipation of what this final impact on ethanol will really be."

U.S. corn prices have risen to $3.38 per bushel from around $2.40 per bushel at the same time in 2006. This year alone, ethanol is forecast to consume 27 percent of the 12.5 billion-bushel U.S. corn crop, the U.S. Agriculture Department has estimated. That compares with 21 percent of last year's 10.5 billion-bushel corn crop going to ethanol.

U.S. ethanol output is on track to double to more than 12 billion gallons a year by the end of this decade. There are 117 distilleries in operation now in the United States with annual capacity of 6 billion gallons. Projects with 6.5 billion gallons of capacity should be completed within two years.

The surge in corn prices has lead several popcorn growers to shift some of their acres into corn. Don Villwock, an Indiana grain farmer, planted white corn this year on 200 acres of land he used for popcorn in 2006.

"The price run-up in corn made the decision for us," said Villwock, who also is president of the Indiana Farm Bureau. "There was a period in January where we did not think we were going to plant any popcorn, but the (buyers) responded with a price increase, and I'm glad they did," he added.

Kevin Poen, an Iowa farmer who sells between 200 and 300 acres of popcorn to packaged-foods maker ConAgra Foods Inc. (CAG.N: Quote, Profile, Research), said he is closely watching corn prices to gauge how much he will receive for his popcorn, which usually moves lock-step with corn, in the future.

"If prices go up, I'm sure they're going to offer me more for my popcorn next year," said Poen. "They all got to compete for acres."

Monday, July 09, 2007

Bush Directs Ex-Aides Not to Testify About Firings

By James Rowley and Roger Runningen

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush ordered two former aides not to answer questions from Congress about the firings of eight U.S. attorneys.

The White House conveyed the directive in letters to lawyers for former Counsel Harriet Miers and Sara Taylor, the ex-White House political director. Taylor is scheduled to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee in two days. White House Counsel Fred Fielding, Miers's successor, also sent letters to House and Senate lawmakers leading the congressional inquiry informing them of Bush's decision.

``The president feels compelled to assert executive privilege with respect to the testimony sought,'' said Fielding's letter to the lawmakers. He said he was informing attorneys for the two former aides ``of his direction to Ms. Taylor and Mrs. Miers not to provide this testimony.''

Lawmakers in the Senate and the House of Representatives are trying to determine whether the Bush administration's firing of eight U.S. attorneys last year was carried out for improper political motives, such as to stymie probes of Republicans or prompt investigations of Democrats.

The letters were sent to Patrick Leahy, the Vermont Democrat who heads the Senate panel, and Michigan Democrat John Conyers, who heads the House Judiciary Committee, White House spokesman Tony Snow said.

Conyers said in a statement today he is ``extremely disappointed'' by Bush's decision. ``Contrary to what the White House may believe, it is the Congress and the courts that will decide whether an invocation of executive privilege is valid, not the White House unilaterally,'' he said.

Contempt Citations

Leahy has previously threatened to seek a congressional vote on contempt citations if the White House refused to comply with the requests for documents.

Should lawmakers seek to hold the Bush administration in contempt, it could move the dispute to the courts and spur a constitutional showdown between Bush and the Democratic-led Congress.

``I haven't heard anything from Mr. Fielding or anybody else at the White House that would justify a claim of executive privilege,'' Leahy said yesterday on CNN. He said Taylor ``sent something like 60,000 e-mails on the Republican National Committee account, not e-mails to the president, but political e- mails while she was there.''

In a July 7 letter to Leahy and Fielding, Taylor's lawyer, W. Neil Eggleston, said his client was caught in an ``unseemly tug of war'' between Congress and the president.

`Without Hesitation'

``Absent direction from the White House,'' Taylor, 32, would testify ``without hesitation'' about the firings, her lawyer wrote.

She faces ``two untenable choices,'' Eggleston wrote. ``She can follow the president's direction and face the possibility of a contempt sanction by the Senate'' or put herself ``at odds with the president'' by cooperating with the congressional inquiry, her lawyer wrote.

He urged the Senate to ``direct its sanction'' for any refusal to testify ``against the White House, not against a former staffer.''

George Manning, a partner in the Atlanta office of the Jones Day law firm who represents Miers, didn't immediately return a call seeking comment.

Fielding also informed the lawmakers of Bush's refusal to provide a detailed list of documents the president considers covered by his assertion of executive privilege. The two lawmakers had demanded the log of documents by today.

``This demand is unreasonable because it represents a substantial incursion into presidential prerogatives'' and ``would impose a burden of very significant proportions,'' Fielding wrote.

Bush has offered to let his aides be questioned behind closed doors without a transcript and with a promise that lawmakers wouldn't issue a subpoena for a follow-up. The congressional panels have rejected those conditions.

Sunday, July 08, 2007

Zimbabwe coming undone

16 Business Leaders Arrested in Zimbabwe
Sunday July 8, 6:19 am ET
By Angus Shaw, Associated Press Writer

Report: Zimbabwe Police Arrest 16 More Business Leaders in Crackdown on Price Slashing HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) -- Police arrested 16 more business leaders in a crackdown on those suspected of violating the government's order to slash prices by 50 percent, the official media reported Sunday.

The mandated price cuts are a desperate attempt to confront inflation that has spun out of control during Zimbabwe's economic crisis. The falling prices have caused stampedes, panic buying and near-riots by impoverished Zimbabweans.

Among those arrested in the latest sweep were the directors of Edgars, a leading clothing and fashion retailer, and supermarket and gas station owners.

Also taken into custody were Michael Fowler and Zed Koudanaris, directors of the main food distributor and fast food chain, and Gavin Sainsbury, chief executive of the country's biggest producer of pork products, the state Sunday Mail reported.

Fowler and Koudanaris pioneered popular branded bakery, pizza and take out franchises in Zimbabwe, including Nando's, known for its chicken dishes across Africa.

No information was immediately available on specific allegations against the business leaders or where they were being held. Police holding cells are notorious for filthy and harsh conditions.

The country's economic crisis, the worst since independence from Britain in 1980, began with the seizure of thousands of white-owned commercial farms for redistribution to blacks in 2000. The country's agriculture-based economy collapsed as a result.

Official inflation is running at 4,500 percent, the highest in the world, though independent financial institutions estimate real inflation is closer to 9,000 percent.

Business executives argue the price cuts threaten to force them to shut down. The government accuses them of being part of a political and economic campaign of "regime change" to bring down longtime ruler President Robert Mugabe.

On Saturday, two weeks after ordering sweeping price cuts, the government announced a new law enabling it to enforce the reductions.

The Sunday Mail, a government mouthpiece, said police and price inspectors raided gas stations still selling scarce fuel Saturday, ordering them to reduce the price by up to two-thirds.

It said they thwarted an attempt by one gas station manager to shut off his pumps by claiming a power outage. Another gas station was caught disconnecting its power supply.

The newspaper said Industry Minister Obert Mpofu ordered commuter bus owners to reduce fares, some by four-fifths, as gasoline prices were being lowered.

Private minibus owners routinely ignore such orders, or take their vehicles off the road, also citing viability problems.

Store shelves remained empty of corn meal, bread, meat and other basic foods Sunday as police and government inspectors continued raiding shops and businesses to force them obey the new price controls.

Police on Friday arrested 17 business leaders.

At least 200 businesses already have been charged for alleged price violations and 40 market vendors were arrested for hoarding goods.

State radio on Sunday quoted police spokesman Andrew Phiri as saying the raids were not a temporary measure but were a permanent enforcement of government efforts to curb inflation and fight profiteering by businesses.

In a speech to supporters Friday, Mugabe warned manufacturers not to defy the government-ordered price cuts by cutting production or their businesses would be seized.

Tuesday, July 03, 2007

James Kunstler

July 2, 2007
Thuggo and Sluggo
As someone who spends a fair amount of time in airports, I marvel at the way my fellow citizens present themselves in public. I see middle-aged women who appear to have left home in their pajamas. But it's the costume and demeanor of American young men especially that raises interesting questions about who we have become.
The fashion and body language of male youth in 2007 comes from three sources: prison, the nursery, and the pimpmobile. It's an old story now that many conventions of gangster fashion come out of the jail experience, where they take away your belt and shoelaces so you won't hang yourself. Apparently, at some point in US history, they stopped giving the belts and shoelaces back on release, and it became stylish to wear your trousers falling down below the top of your underpants (or butt crack as the case may be). Jail being a kind of accreditation device these days, the message may be: I passed the entrance exam.
Less obvious is the contribution of the nursery. Pants that are ambiguously neither long or short, worn with XX-large T shirts, tend to make grown men look like babies. Babies have short legs and large torsos compared to grown men. They also make big awkward gestures and touch their sex organs a lot. Add a sideways hat and unlaced sneakers and you have the complete kindergarten rig. Why a 20-year-old male would want to look five years old is another interesting question, but it may have a lot to do with the developmental failures of boys raised in households without fathers. They simply don't know how to be men. They only know how to behave like five year old boys. They even give themselves nursery school nicknames. But they are men, and what could be more menacing than the paradox of a child bent on homicide.
Tattoos used to be pretty much the sole fashion statement of merchant seamen or people who have served in the armed forces (or people who live in jungles). Now they are common among career girls. The tattooed guys I see down at the gym are ordinary young men who work in cubicles. Tattoos on sailors used to celebrate places they had been or people they had loved. The tattoos I see now are meant to convey fierce and barbaric statements of superhuman power: look at me, I'm a Power Ranger! It's understandable that someone who spends most of his waking hours in a cubicle wearing a telephone headset in order to swindle old people out of their savings might fantasize about rising above all that. But the tragic thing, of course, is that getting tattooed is not quite the same as accomplishing something with your life. In the end, you're just another loser with a grandiose and ridiculous tattoo.
The pimp connection is too obvious to belabor -- meant to mock normal executive attire while signifying an existence of total leisure and the enjoyment of unearned riches. The trouble is that the worship of unearned riches -- based on the belief that it truly is possible to get something for nothing -- has now become normal at all levels in American life. Everybody from the lowest whoremonger on Hollywood Boulevard to the Wall Street hedge fund managers believes in unearned riches plucked from "suckers." The catch is that men who live by this code almost always come to a bad end. They get their throats cut with razors, or go to prison, or manage to lose all their unearned riches (and the investments of many strangers, too).
The portrait of the young American male in 2007, therefore, is of an impotent, infantalized being lost in grandiose fantasies of power and importance. It's a picture of men without real confidence, and no idea how to achieve it, who wish to project a transcendently ferocious image complete with odds-and-ends of manner taken from comic books and movies based on comic books, in order to be taken seriously.
The rest of the world must tremble to contemplate the picture we present. The Nazi soldiers of 1944 were glamour boys compared to the riff-raff that American young men have become. As for those who actually do make it into the army, you wonder how they appear to the locals overseas -- they're probably taken seriously as exactly what the present themselves to be: manifestly evil beings who really need to be blown up. Back home, I look around at the thugs and sluggos at my gym, and I'm ashamed to be a citizen of the same country they live in.

The Cat's Outta the bag

Subprime lending problems ensnaring big Wall Street firms




Twelve years ago, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. sent a vice president to
California to check out First Alliance Mortgage Co. Lehman was thinking about
tapping into First Alliance's lucrative business of making "subprime" house
loans to consumers with sketchy credit.

The vice president, Eric Hibbert, wrote a memo describing First Alliance as a
financial "sweat shop" specializing in "high-pressure sales for people who are
in a weak state." At First Alliance, he said, employees leave their "ethics at
the door."

The big Wall Street investment bank decided First Alliance wasn't breaking any
laws. Lehman went on to lend the mortgage company roughly $500 million and
helped sell more than $700 million in bonds backed by First Alliance customers'
loans. But First Alliance later collapsed. Lehman landed in court, where a
federal jury found the firm helped First Alliance defraud customers.

Today, Lehman is a prime example of how Wall Street's money and expertise have
helped transform subprime lending into a major force in the U.S. financial
markets. Lehman says it is proud of its role in helping provide credit to
consumers who might otherwise have been unable to buy a house, and proud of the
controls it has brought to a sometimes-unruly business.

Now, however, that business is in deep trouble, and some consumer advocates and
policymakers are pointing the finger at Wall Street. Roughly 13 percent of
subprime loans stand in or near foreclosure, bringing turmoil and sometimes
eviction to tens of thousands of homeowners. Dozens of lenders have gone out of
business. Bear Stearns Cos. is trying to bail out a hedge fund it manages that
was hurt by subprime mortgage losses.

Critics say Wall Street firms helped create the mess by throwing so much money
at the market that lenders had a growing incentive to push through shaky loans
and mislead borrowers.

At a hearing in April, Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., said Wall Street firms
"looked the other way" as they profited from questionable loans, "fueling a
market that has very little discipline over itself."

Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke said in a May speech that some lenders
focused more on feeding the marketplace than on the quality of loans, in part
because most of the risks that loans would go bad were passed on to investors.
As a result, "mortgage applications with little documentation were vulnerable
to misrepresentation or

overestimation of repayment capacity by both lenders and borrowers," he said.

A generation ago, housing finance was different. Bankers took in deposits, lent
that money to house buyers and collected interest and principal until the
mortgages were paid. Wall Street wasn't much involved.

Now it plays a central role. Wall Street firms provide working capital that
allows thousands of mortgage firms to make loans. After lenders sign up
consumers for home loans, investment banks pool the income streams from these
loans into bonds known as mortgage-backed securities. The banks sell them to
yield-hungry investors around the world.

Before the mid-1990s, mortgage-backed securities consisted mostly of loans to
borrowers with good credit and cash to make ample down payments. Then
investment banks found they could do the same with riskier loans to borrowers
with modest incomes and flawed credit. Pooling the loans created a cushion
against defaults by diversifying the risk. The high interest rates on the loans
made for bonds with high yields that investors savored. New technology helped
make it easier for lenders to collect and collate mounds of information on
borrowers.

Lehman, one of Wall Street's biggest players in the subprime boom, says it has
gone to great lengths to screen loans for fraud and vet the lenders it works
with.

At the sector's peak in 2005, with the housing market booming, loan defaults
remained low. Wall Street pooled a record $508 billion in subprime mortgages in
bonds, up from $56 billion in 2000, according to trade publication Inside
Mortgage Finance. The figure slid to $483 billion last year as the housing
market slumped and subprime defaults picked up.

Lehman topped other Wall Street firms over the last two years, packaging more
than $50 billion in subprime-mortgage-backed securities in both 2005 and 2006.
Overall, Lehman officials say, the subprime business has accounted for 3
percent of the firm's overall revenue in recent quarters, or roughly $500
million in 2006.

Lehman has also been a leader in investment banks' push to buy their own
lenders. Through its subprime unit BNC Mortgage Inc., it lends directly to
consumers, bringing in more fees and giving it more control over the quality of
the loans.

Lehman's deep involvement in the business also has made the firm a target of
criticism. In more than 15 lawsuits and in interviews, borrowers and former
employees have claimed that the investment bank's in-house lending outlets used
improper tactics during the recent mortgage boom to put borrowers into loans
they couldn't afford.

Twenty-five former employees said in interviews that front-line workers and
managers exaggerated borrowers' creditworthiness by falsifying tax forms, pay
stubs and other information, or by ignoring inaccurate data submitted by
independent mortgage brokers. In some instances, several ex-employees said,
brokers or in-house employees altered documents with the help of scissors, tape
and Wite-Out.

"Anything to make the deal work," said Coleen Columbo, a former mortgage
underwriter in California for Lehman's BNC unit. She and five other
ex-employees are pursuing a lawsuit in state court in Sacramento that claims
BNC's management retaliated against workers who complained about fraud.

Lehman officials say there's no evidence to support such claims. They say the
firm has tough antifraud controls and goes to great lengths to ensure that it
works with mortgage brokers and lenders who meet high standards and that loans
are based on accurate information.

Lehman said company records clearly refute specific details of the accounts
given by these former employees. It said most of them never raised concerns
during their tenures at Lehman lending units, even though that was a
requirement of their jobs. Some employees contacted by The Wall Street Journal
said they weren't aware of improper practices.

"We think it is misleading to extrapolate from a handful of cases, in each of
which we have a strong defense, and make a judgment about the way we conduct
our business," Lehman said.

What a travesty!

Bush Commutes Libby Prison Sentence


Tuesday July 3, 2007 1:16 AM

By BEN FELLER

Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush spared former White House aide I. Lewis ``Scooter'' Libby from a 2-year prison term in the CIA leak case Monday, delivering a political thunderbolt in a highly charged criminal case. Bush said the sentence was just too harsh. Bush's move came just five hours after a federal appeals panel ruled that Libby could not delay his prison term.

That meant Libby was likely to have to report soon, and it put new pressure on the president, who had been sidestepping calls by Libby's allies to pardon Vice President Dick Cheney's former chief of staff.

``I respect the jury's verdict,'' Bush said in a statement. ``But I have concluded that the prison sentence given to Mr. Libby is excessive. Therefore, I am commuting the portion of Mr. Libby's sentence that required him to spend thirty months in prison.''

Bush's decision enraged Democrats and cheered conservatives - though some of the latter wished Bush had granted a full pardon.

``Libby's conviction was the one faint glimmer of accountability for White House efforts to manipulate intelligence and silence critics of the Iraq war,'' said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. ``Now, even that small bit of justice has been undone.''

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said Bush's decision showed the president ``condones criminal conduct.''

Unlike a pardon, which would have wiped away Libby's criminal record, Bush's commutation voided only the prison term.

The president left intact a $250,000 fine and two years probation for his conviction of lying and obstructing justice in a probe into the leak of a CIA operative's identity. The former operative, Valerie Plame, contends the White House was trying to discredit her husband, a critic of Bush's Iraq policy.

Bush said his action still ``leaves in place a harsh punishment for Mr. Libby.''

Libby was convicted in March, the highest-ranking White House official ordered to prison since the Iran-Contra affair.

Testimony in the case had revealed the extraordinary steps that Bush and Cheney were willing to take to discredit a critic of the Iraq war.

Libby's supporters celebrated the president's decision.

``President Bush did the right thing today in commuting the prison term for Scooter Libby,'' said House Republican Whip Roy Blunt of Missouri.

``That's fantastic. It's a great relief,'' said former Ambassador Richard Carlson, who helped raise millions for Libby's defense fund. ``Scooter Libby did not deserve to go to prison and I'm glad the president had the courage to do this.''

Already at record lows in the polls, Bush risked a political backlash with his decision. President Ford tumbled in the polls after his 1974 pardon of Richard M. Nixon, and the decision was a factor in Ford's loss in his bid for re-election.

White House officials said Bush knew he could take political heat and simply did what he thought was right. They would not say what advice Cheney might have given the president.

On the other hand, Bush's action could help Republican presidential candidates by letting them off the hook on the question of whether they would pardon Libby.

A message seeking comment from Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald's office was not immediately returned.

Bush said Cheney's former aide was not getting off free.

``The reputation he gained through his years of public service and professional work in the legal community is forever damaged,'' Bush said. ``His wife and young children have also suffered immensely. He will remain on probation. The significant fines imposed by the judge will remain in effect. The consequences of his felony conviction on his former life as a lawyer, public servant and private citizen will be long-lasting.''

A spokeswoman for Cheney said simply, ``The vice president supports the president's decision.''

The White House said Bush came to his decision in the past week or two and made it final Monday because of the ruling of the appeals panel, which meant Libby would be going to prison soon.

The president's announcement came just as prison seemed likely for Libby. He recently lost an appeals court fight that was his best chance to put the sentence on hold, and the U.S. Bureau of Prisons had already designated him inmate No. 28301-016.

Bush's statement made no mention of the term ``pardon,'' and he made clear that he was not willing to wipe away all penalties for Libby.

The president noted Libby supporters' argument that the punishment did not fit the crime for a ``first-time offender with years of exceptional public service.''

Yet, he added, ``Others point out that a jury of citizens weighed all the evidence and listened to all the testimony and found Mr. Libby guilty of perjury and obstructing justice. They argue, correctly, that our entire system of justice relies on people telling the truth. And if a person does not tell the truth, particularly if he serves in government and holds the public trust, he must be held accountable.''

Bush then stripped away the prison time.

The leak case has hung over the White House for years. After CIA operative Valerie Plame's name appeared in a 2003 syndicated newspaper column, Special Prosecutor Fitzgerald questioned top administration officials, including Bush and Cheney, about their possible roles.

Nobody was ever charged with the leak, including Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage or White House political adviser Karl Rove, who provided the information for the original article. Prosecutors said Libby obstructed the investigation by lying about how he learned about Plame and whom he told.

Plame believes Libby and other White House officials conspired to leak her identity to reporters in 2003 as retribution against her husband, Joseph Wilson, who criticized what he said was the administration's misleading use of prewar intelligence on Iraq.

Attorney William Jeffress said he had spoken to Libby briefly by phone and ``I'm happy at least that Scooter will be spared any prison time. ... The prison sentence was imminent but obviously the conviction itself is a heavy blow to Scooter.''

Monday, July 02, 2007

White House Advisory

Remember when the administration advised us to go out and purchase duct tape and plastic to seal off our houses in case of an anthrax attack? This warning is still on the White House website.

What to do to prepare for a chemical or biological attack

  • Assemble a disaster supply kit (see the “Emergency Planning and Disaster Supplies” chapter for more information) and be sure to include:
  • Battery-powered commercial radio with extra batteries.
  • Non-perishable food and drinking water.
  • Roll of duct tape and scissors.
  • Plastic for doors, windows and vents for the room in which you will shelter in place—this should be an internal room where you can block out air that may contain hazardous chemical or biological agents. To save critical time during an emergency, sheeting should be pre-measured and cut for each opening.
  • First aid kit.
  • Sanitation supplies including soap, water and bleach.

Mutually Assured Mayhem

Mutually Assured Mayhem
Wall Street is on edge, scrambling to buck up Bear Stearns and avert a domino-effect debacle

On June 26 managers of Credit Suisse's (CS ) alternative investment group sent an e-mail to investors reassuring them that its portfolios "have minimal direct exposure" to subprime mortgages and "do not have any direct exposure" to the two Bear Stearns & Co. (BSC ) hedge funds that had nearly collapsed the week before. As that note was wending its way through the ether, other investors were quietly trying to sell their stakes in hedge funds full of subprime securities. Some were noting that Toronto bank CIBC holds many subprime bonds. Paris bank BNP Paribas (BNPQY ) was fending off questions about its investment in the Bear fund with heaviest losses.

It's white-knuckle time on Wall Street as firms try to prevent the subprime mess from spreading. The hedge fund blowup has suddenly thrown the world's biggest financial institutions into a game of brinkmanship that will end in one of three ways: a quick, brutal crash of the subprime mortgage market and possibly the broader corporate bond market; a slow, painful meltdown of one or both lasting many months; or a short-term blip that, over time, will be forgotten as conditions return to normal.

Disaster has been averted so far. But pressure continues to come from all sides. The decisions made by Wall Street's bankers, hedge fund managers, and bond raters over the next several weeks will determine which way the game plays out. One twitchy move by any of them could lead to mutually assured destruction.

ELBOW DEEP
At first the subprime mess looked more or less like a Bear Stearns problem. When its funds stumbled, it was Bear that put up a staggering $1.6 billion in loans to stanch the bleeding. It was Bear's stock that took the biggest hit of any brokerage house, falling some 3.2% in a day. And it was Bear that, as reported by BusinessWeek.com on June 25, drew the scrutiny of the Securities & Exchange Commission, which has opened up a preliminary investigation into what went wrong inside the 84-year-old firm led by CEO James E. Cayne.

Ordinarily, rivals wouldn't shed tears if Bear Stearns were suffering—they'd pounce on the weakness. But much of Wall Street is elbow-deep in the same troubled securities, all created during the height of the mortgage boom, that are now coming back to bite Bear. Last year, Wall Street churned out some $550 billion in so-called collateralized debt obligations (CDOs): complex bonds often backed by subprime loans that pay high yields in good times but are dangerous when the market gets rocky, as it is now. "This is not [only] a Bear Stearns problem," says Joseph R. Mason, associate professor of finance at Drexel University's LeBow College of Business.

A DOZEN PROBES
CDOs are especiallY troublesome in a choppy market because they're illiquid— difficult not only to sell but even to value. Until now, accounting rules have let firms peg their CDOs at roughly the price they paid for them. But if the market sets new prices, then others must use those prices to value their holdings. What gives Wall Street nightmares is the possibility that Bear Stearns' struggling hedge funds, which once controlled $16 billion in assets, will be liquidated by their creditors. A shotgun sale of poorly performing securities would provide Wall Street with a true price for valuing the slumping assets. "Nobody wants to officially acknowledge the worthless nature of these products," says Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, a Darien (Conn.) money management firm. Indeed, SEC Chairman Christopher Cox, during a hearing on Capital Hill on June 26, disclosed that regulators have opened a dozen separate probes on the subprime market and the issue of CDO pricing, in addition to the Bear inquiry.

If Bear's holdings were auctioned off at, say, 60 cents on the dollar and other firms marked down their CDOs accordingly, losses would spread. Firms would start dumping their CDOs to get what they could for them. Thus would begin a quick, brutal crash.

That's one reason Wall Street firms such as Merrill Lynch (MER ), JPMorgan Chase (JPM ), Goldman Sach (GS )s, and Deutsche Bank (DB ), all of which had financed the funds in the first place, have been in no rush to liquidate them. A liquidation would have hurt everyone.

There's another force bearing down on CDO holders: credit rating agencies such as Moody's Investors Service (MCO ) and Standard & Poor's, which like BusinessWeek is a unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies (MHP ). If the ratings agencies were to downgrade the CDOs, it would force holders to mark down their values accordingly, potentially igniting the same sort of disaster scenario. That hasn't happened yet. "Our surveillance involves significant testing and analysis, and our long-term record is excellent," says an S&P spokesman. Noel Kirnon, head of global CDO ratings at Moody's, says the firm has a rigorous process for monitoring CDOs, and adds that deterioration in the underlying assets "has not exceeded expectations."

The wild card is institutional investors such as pension funds, university endowments, and foreign governments. If they get more nervous about the hedge funds they're invested in, they could start looking to cash out—as some have done already. If they rush for the exits, hedge funds will feel pressure to get out of CDOs, perhaps prompting a downward spiral.

The broader housing market also presents a potential threat. In Maricopa County, Ariz., which includes Phoenix, houses are entering foreclosure at a rate of more than 50 a day, according to Foreclosure.com, up 60% from last year, as recent buyers are hit by high payments and falling equity. The faster foreclosures rise, the more it may become apparent that the loans held by the CDOs are in trouble and the greater the risk of CDO downgrades.

In this high-stakes game, the risks to other lines of business are major. Already, concerns are growing that the Bear situation may be spilling over to junk bonds and leveraged loans—two red-hot markets that have kept leveraged buyouts booming and generated big profits for big banks. An index of leveraged loans has fallen 2% the past two weeks. Junk bonds are down as well. Steven C. Miller, managing director of Standard & Poor's LCD, a loan market research service, says that for the first time in two years, investment bankers have had to issue "bridge" or back-up financing for an LBO after running into difficulty selling junk bonds to fund the deal. LBO firms are going back and offering investors higher yields and better protections to raise money for pending buyouts such as the one for retailer ServiceMaster Co. (SVM ), owner of Terminix and Merry Maids. "There's a much more sober view in the leveraged finance market right now," says Miller.

For all the pressure on CDOs, though, a crisis hasn't yet been touched off. Some observers are downplaying the significance of the hedge fund blowup to Bear Stearns' bottom line. Roger Freeman, an analyst at Lehman Brothers Inc. (LEH ), says in a June 26 research note that the matter will not have "a meaningful impact on Bear's earnings." Likewise, Miller of S&P LCD predicts that, for all the consternation over Bear, the LBO pace will only slow, not stop. CIBC, meanwhile, rejects suggestions that it could be the next firm to tumble. The assumptions about its subprime exposure "are simply not true," says bank spokesman Stephen Forbes. Paribas declined to comment.

Wall Street's strategy from here will be to try to maintain the status quo, putting out new fires quickly. "They are hoping to buy themselves as much time as possible," says James Melcher, founder of Balestra Capital, a hedge fund. "The game could work out if the top dozen firms get together to hold the market and gradually deflate it over time."

But the prospect of a meltdown is on everyone's mind. On June 26, UBS (UBS ) analysts held a conference call with money managers to review the Bear situation. "There's a search for contagion going on," says Douglas J. Lucas, a UBS analyst on the call. "I've talked to people from as far away as Australia." Everyone is watching to see who might blink.